"The deflation threat facing Europe" - Kaletsky. See especially the last two paragraphs.

Seasonality.

November 17 – Bloomberg (Flavia Krause-Jackson): “United Arab Emirates Central Bank Governor Sultan Bin Nasser al-Suwaidi comments on the outlook for the euro overtaking the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve currency for international trade… ‘I would say the euro will definitely grow to dominate trade outside the euro area. I expect the euro to become the currency of international trade within 10 years. It will surpass the dollar by 2015.’” [Via Noland]

November 15 – Financial Times (Peter Smith and Gillian Tett): “Moulton estimates there are $768bn of outstanding leveraged loans in Europe that have financed about 2,500 private equity-backed companies. He estimates that about 200 of those have undergone leveraged recapitalisations, a process allowing backers to cream off large dividends while simultaneously loading the companies with extra debt.”

[Via Noland]

Noland:

"Credit losses... are [in contrast to conventional insurance] very much an outgrowth of the Credit cycle, with writing protection against future Credit losses a speculative endeavor rather than 'insurance'...

...data from the cycle's upside will misrepresent downside risks...

...repeated market interventions have precipitated an increasing focus on the Credit arena for speculative profits."