Saturday, October 21, 2006

“A SWAP STORY: BORROWED FROM THE BANK OF ENGLAND” by Rob Kirby.

“When Atlas Shrugged... - Part Two: Gibson's Paradox and the gold price” by Antal E. Fekete

“Bubble - Bubble Toil And Trouble” by Captain Hook (esp. ‘expanding the paper empire abroad’)

”…primary dealers not only deal in stocks in a big way, but also in debt / credit markets, and currencies, with the term 'counter party risk' potentially becoming applicable in cross-markets.”

David Coffin & Eric Coffin: “A $20 drop in oil prices adds about half a billion a day to US discretionary spending…” But consider the view of Roach: “In the three oil shocks of the past, the personal saving rate averaged 8% -- leaving consumers not only an ample cushion to withstand the blow of higher energy prices but also the wherewithal to step up and start spending when oil prices went the other way. At a zero or negative saving rate, no such cushion exists. This suggests that there is a much greater chance US consumers will save an energy-related tax cut rather than spend it. In short, I’m still a believer in the notion that -- lower oil prices or not -- the bursting of the housing bubble is likely to take a meaningful toll on the seemingly unflappable American consumer.”

Roach: “The recent spin of Fedspeak appears to have been aimed at reining in the excesses of the bond market.”

Roach: “The Chinese leadership very much understands the imperatives of cooling off -- both for investment and exports. The alternatives of excess capacity and deflation from a runaway investment boom and/or a protectionist backlash from open-ended export growth are simply unacceptable.”

Kirby: “While the Fed has been sounding hawkish via the media they have quietly been ADDING liquidity through Open Market Operations [Repos] known colloquially as TOMO [temporary open market operations] and POMO [permanent open market operations].”

Working Paper at the Mises site - A Ternary Diagram of Western Political Systems by George E. Gregory (URS Corp, Houston, TX) 9/8/2006

Marjorie Hope Nicholson: “Don’t let your mind be so open that everything going into it falls through”. [Quoted by Rothbard]

“A proper British veil-wearer” - David Aaronovitch

Cliff Droke: “Who had it better: Our parents or us?”

Mukherjee:

``Reforming collateral systems can have favorable effects in the financial sector,'' noted a study conducted by the World Bank's Mehnaz Safavian and other researchers in March. ``In Albania, after a new law governing the use of collateral was passed and a pledge registry set up in 2001, the risk premium on lending fell by half, the interest rate spread by 43 percent, and the interest rate on lending by 5 percentage points.''

Bye-Bye, Bond Vigilantes (Assuming You Exist): Caroline Baum

“What She Said” - Cyd Malone

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