Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Back to basics after the bubble?

Roach:

"In a post-bubble climate, US households will be unable to save through asset appreciation, prompting America to increase income-based saving and reduce its claim on the pool of global saving. That points to a long-awaited reduction in the big US current account deficit – initially painful for export-dependent economies elsewhere in the world but ultimately a welcome resolution for global imbalances.

But who will fill the void as the US consumer pulls back? The simple answer is; maybe no one.

...Excess liquidity bought time for a precarious world. As central banks move to normalise monetary policy, that time has run out. Without the unsustainable support of asset bubbles, it is back to basics – with aggregate demand supported by more modest labour income generation rather than the excesses of wealth creation. So much for the artificial boom of an unbalanced world."

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